HRV integrates almost every recovery factor: how you slept, what you ate, how stressed you are, whether you've been training too hard, illness brewing, hydration, alcohol. All of them affect autonomic nervous system tone, and HRV is the most direct readable measurement of that tone.
It's also leading: HRV often drops 24–72 hours before you feel sick, before subjective fatigue, and before performance declines. Athletes who track HRV consistently can catch overreaching 7–10 days earlier than those relying on perceived fatigue.
The 7-night rolling baseline is important: a single bad night doesn't drag the status down. Your individual baseline matters far more than absolute HRV numbers — never compare your number to another athlete's. A 30 ms HRV in your range is fitter than a 60 ms HRV in another athlete's range.